SpaceX is planning an initial public offering that would value the company at approximately $1.5 trillion and raise upward of $30 billion — numbers that would make it the largest IPO in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29.4 billion offering in 2019. Elon Musk has confirmed the timeline: mid-to-late 2026. [1]

The valuation is anchored in Starlink. SpaceX's satellite internet division is projected to generate the majority of the company's estimated $24 billion in 2026 revenue, with more than 4 million subscribers worldwide. The launch services business — Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, and the developing Starship program — provides the technological moat, but Starlink provides the recurring revenue that Wall Street can model. [2]

SpaceX would not be alone on the runway. Databricks is reportedly planning a $134 billion offering. OpenAI has been valued between $830 billion and $1 trillion in private secondary markets. Fortune called it potentially the biggest year for venture-backed IPOs in a decade. [3]

The complications are political. Musk's role leading the Department of Government Efficiency creates conflicts with SpaceX's extensive government contracts — NASA, the Department of Defense, the National Reconnaissance Office. Whether public markets will price in that risk or treat it as a feature of Musk's access remains the open question. Private secondary trades already value SpaceX shares at levels that assume the IPO succeeds. [1]

-- DAVID CHEN, Beijing