A senior Houthi official warned this week that closing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is "an option on the table" if Gulf states join the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, the Times of Israel reported. [1] The threat, if executed, would create a simultaneous blockade of the world's two most critical maritime oil chokepoints.

The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since Iran activated its blockade infrastructure in March. Roughly 20 percent of global oil transits Hormuz. The Bab el-Mandeb, the 18-mile-wide passage between Yemen and Djibouti at the southern entrance to the Red Sea, carries another 12 percent of the world's oil shipments, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. [2]

A dual closure would take approximately 30 percent of seaborne oil offline. Shipping would be forced around the Cape of Good Hope, adding weeks and billions in costs to voyages already strained by war-risk insurance premiums. [2]

The Houthis entered the war on March 28, launching missiles at Israeli military sites and signaling that their Red Sea disruption campaign, which paralyzed container shipping in 2024, would resume on a wartime footing. [3]

The conditional nature of the threat matters. The Houthis framed it as a deterrent against Saudi Arabia and the UAE, not as an imminent action. But the infrastructure is in place, the precedent is fresh, and the Houthis have shown they do not bluff.

-- YOSEF STERN, Jerusalem