Twelve days remain before the U.S. sanctions waiver on Iranian oil expires. The 30-day waiver, issued by the Office of Foreign Assets Control on March 20, allows the purchase and delivery of Iranian crude already loaded on vessels at sea [1]. It lapses on April 19 [2].

The waiver was the Trump administration's latest attempt to blunt a global price surge driven by Middle East supply disruptions. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said removing sanctions on stranded Iranian oil would get supplies to Asian ports within three or four days [3]. There was one problem: Iran said it had no floating crude or surplus available for international sale [4].

Tehran's rejection turned the waiver into a diplomatic gesture rather than a market intervention. Analysis from Vortexa and other energy trackers found the volume of Iranian oil actually on water was negligible [5]. Indian exporters, who had relied on U.S. waivers for Iranian oil purchases under a separate barter trade mechanism, are urging their government to prepare for the cutoff [6]. Brent crude remains elevated. The waiver did nothing to move it.

-- THEO KAPLAN, San Francisco