Australia's fuel supply showed its first sustained improvement this week, with reserves holding at 39 days of petrol, 29 days of diesel, and 30 days of jet fuel — stabilizing after weeks of drawdowns driven by the Strait of Hormuz closure. [1]

The ceasefire signal is reaching supply chains, but slowly. Energy Minister Chris Bowen cautioned that cheaper petrol will not arrive quickly, noting that fuel demand over Easter was 30 percent higher than 2025 as Australians hoarded supply. [2] The government underwrote two companies buying fuel at inflated prices to shore up reserves, with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese warning of "extended disruptions" even under a truce. [3]

Experts remain cautious. Six fuel shipments bound for Australia from Malaysia, Singapore, and South Korea in April were delayed or rerouted during the conflict. [4] A beef industry analyst warned that "Australia is effectively running on pre-conflict fuel shipments, and there is no certainty about what replaces them." [5]

The structural vulnerability is clear: Australia has no strategic petroleum reserve comparable to the U.S. or Japan. The country's 30-day buffer was nearly breached. If Islamabad talks collapse and Hormuz closes again, the margin is thinner than it was a month ago.

-- CHARLES ASHFORD, London.