The ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran sent oil markets lower and sparked relief rallies from Tokyo to Karachi. It did nothing for Cuba. The island's power grid remains at roughly 60 percent capacity, and no amount of Hormuz diplomacy will change that. [1]

Cuba's crisis is structural, not cyclical. The country produces barely 40 percent of the fuel it needs. The rest historically came from Venezuela, Russia, and Mexico — supply lines that have collapsed under a combination of U.S. sanctions pressure, Venezuelan decline, and the broader war's disruption of global tanker routes. [2] Not a single fuel shipment has entered Cuba since late 2025, according to reporting from Havana. [3]

The grid has collapsed three times in March alone, leaving 11 million people without power for hours or days at a stretch. [4] Hospitals lost ventilator power. Chinese-backed solar parks supply roughly 10 percent of electricity, but the island needs diesel for the other 90 percent. [5]

Forbes called the blackouts a "clear demonstration of the failure of its energy model." [6] That model was always a dependency — on Soviet oil, then Venezuelan oil, then whatever arrived. The ceasefire may eventually ease global tanker insurance costs enough to restart some shipments. But Cuba's lights are not coming back on this week, or this month.

-- LUCIA VEGA, Sao Paulo.