The first quarter 2026 earnings season begins next week, and JPMorgan Chase is the opening act. The bank reports before market open on Tuesday, April 14, with analysts expecting $5.42 in earnings per share and roughly $49 billion in revenue. [1]

The broader picture is strong on paper. FactSet's latest Earnings Insight shows the S&P 500 is expected to post 13.2 percent year-over-year earnings growth for Q1, up from 12.8 percent at the quarter's start. [2] If realized, it would mark the fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth for the index.

But this is not a normal quarter. The Iran war disrupted energy markets, spiked shipping costs, and introduced sanctions uncertainty that hit every sector from finance to agriculture. Banks will be the first to reveal how much of that turbulence shows up in loan loss provisions, trading revenue, and forward guidance. [3]

Wall Street is watching for two things: whether JPMorgan's trading desk profited from war-era volatility, and whether CEO Jamie Dimon's commentary on the ceasefire signals confidence or caution. Private credit exposure, flagged by Deutsche Bank earlier this month, is another flashpoint. [4]

Earnings season will answer the question the market has been deferring: did corporate America survive the war quarter, or just defer the damage?

-- THEO KAPLAN, San Francisco.