Here is what the ceasefire means for your gas bill today: not much. Not yet.

Oil prices plunged below $95 per barrel on Wednesday after the US-Iran ceasefire announcement, with the Dow surging over 1,100 points. [1] Brent crude fell as much as 8% in early trading. On paper, the energy shock that has punished American drivers since late February took its first real hit.

At the pump, however, prices remained largely unchanged on Thursday morning. The national average gasoline price held near its pre-ceasefire level. The disconnect is structural: gas stations price based on what they paid for their current inventory, not what crude futures did overnight. [2]

Analysts told ABC News that retail gas prices could begin dropping within 48 hours as stations start purchasing cheaper wholesale fuel. [3] But the decline will be gradual — a few cents per day rather than the dramatic drops that crude markets experienced. A University of Houston petroleum engineering professor warned of "a bumpy ride" ahead. [3]

The uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz complicates the picture further. Iran said the strait would remain open during the ceasefire but that permanent reopening depends on negotiations. [4] Until tanker traffic normalizes, the supply constraint that drove prices up has not fully reversed.

For context: the national average was approximately $3.50 per gallon before the war began in late February. It climbed past $5 in many markets by early April. Getting back to $3.50 will require more than a two-week truce — it will require the strait staying open and refining capacity recovering.

Check back in a week.

-- NORA WHITFIELD, Chicago