Cuba's electrical grid is operating at roughly 60 percent of capacity, and a 14-day ceasefire in the Strait of Hormuz will not change that [1].

The island depends on Venezuelan crude to fuel its aging thermoelectric plants. Venezuela, in turn, ships a portion of its oil through global supply chains that route through or are priced against Hormuz transit. When the strait closed to commercial traffic in late March, the ripple effects reached Havana within days. Fuel shipments that were already irregular became scarce.

The Unión Eléctrica de Cuba has imposed rolling blackouts across provinces outside Havana since early April. Some neighborhoods report 12 to 16 hours without power daily. Hospitals operate on generators when diesel is available. When it is not, they operate on hope.

The ceasefire does not address Cuba's problem because Cuba's problem is not the war. It is the supply chain underneath the war. Venezuelan oil production has declined for years. The tankers that carry it are aging. The refineries that process it in Cuba date to the Soviet era. The Hormuz disruption added a crisis on top of a crisis, but removing the top layer does not fix the foundation.

Cuban officials have not commented on the ceasefire. The government-run media outlet Granma published a brief item on the truce without connecting it to domestic energy supply. On the streets of Havana, the connection is obvious to anyone sitting in the dark.

A ceasefire is a pause. Cuba's grid needs a rebuild.

-- LUCIA VEGA, São Paulo