Mexican truckers who have been idling at fuel stations for weeks greeted the ceasefire with cautious optimism. Their rigs need diesel. Diesel needs oil. Oil needs to flow through the Strait of Hormuz. For the first time since late March, there is a signal that it might [1].

The Cámara Nacional del Autotransporte de Carga, which represents Mexico's freight carriers, said the ceasefire was "a step in the right direction" but stopped short of calling off the work slowdown that has disrupted supply chains from Monterrey to Mexico City. Drivers want to see fuel at the pumps before they restart engines.

Mexico imports roughly 70 percent of its gasoline and a significant share of its diesel from U.S. refineries that process Gulf crude. When Hormuz disruptions pushed global oil prices above $130 per barrel, U.S. refiners redirected output to higher-margin export markets, squeezing Mexican supply. Pemex, the state oil company, could not fill the gap from domestic production.

The result was visible on every highway in Mexico — parked trucks, empty shelves in border-town supermarkets, and a freight system running at half capacity. Drivers who operate on thin margins found diesel either unavailable or unaffordable.

A 14-day ceasefire creates the possibility that oil flows stabilize, refinery output normalizes, and Mexican fuel imports resume at pre-crisis levels. That chain has many links. Any one of them can break.

For now, the truckers wait. They have learned the difference between a signal and a supply. Hope does not fill a fuel tank.

-- LUCIA VEGA, São Paulo