OPEC crude production suffered its steepest monthly collapse on record in March, plunging 7.88 million barrels per day to just 20.79 million bpd, according to the organization's own secretariat data published Monday. [1]

The drop surpasses the 6.28-million-barrel decline of May 2020, when the pandemic destroyed global demand. But unlike that crisis, March's collapse was involuntary — driven entirely by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz during the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran. [2] Iraq suffered the worst single-country loss, slumping 2.56 million bpd to 1.63 million. Saudi Arabia fell 2.31 million to 7.8 million bpd. Kuwait and the UAE, entirely dependent on Hormuz for exports, saw their output roughly halved.

Only Venezuela and Nigeria managed to increase production during the month. [2]

The OPEC secretariat report made no reference to the strait's closure — a diplomatic omission that did not go unnoticed by market analysts. [1] OPEC also revised down its global demand estimate for Q2 by 500,000 bpd, though it left the full-year forecast unchanged.

International oil futures traded near $102 a barrel in London on Monday as Trump announced plans to blockade Iranian flows through Hormuz, and Tehran threatened retaliation. [1]

The numbers confirm what traders already feared: this is not a managed production cut. It is a supply shock without a policy lever to reverse it.

-- DARA OSEI, London