President Donald Trump told Fox News' "Sunday Morning Futures" that oil and gas prices "could be, or the same, or maybe a little bit higher" by the November midterm elections — a rare public concession that the war he started is costing American consumers at the pump and may cost his party at the ballot box. [2]

The national average for a gallon of regular gasoline stood at $4.125 as of April 12, according to AAA, with California topping $5.89 and Washington state close behind at $5.39. Prices were under $3 per gallon before the war began on February 28. [1] The more than 30% surge since then has erased one of Trump's signature first-term economic talking points — the cheap energy that powered his 2024 campaign narrative.

Iran's parliament speaker, Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf, was not about to let the moment pass. Hours after Trump announced the Hormuz blockade, Ghalibaf posted a screenshot of Washington-area gas prices on X and wrote: "Enjoy the current pump figures. With the so-called 'blockade,' soon you'll be nostalgic for $4–$5 gas." He accompanied the taunt with a mock equation — "ΔO_BSOH>0 ⇒ f(f(O))>f(O)" — suggesting that blocking the strait would compound oil-price shocks exponentially rather than linearly. [1]

The political math is less esoteric but equally uncomfortable. Republican strategist Douglas Heye called elevated fuel costs "a very big obstacle" for the party heading into November, when all 435 House seats and 33 Senate seats are on the ballot. [2] Democrats have already made fuel prices a central campaign argument, tying the war's economic pain directly to the administration's decision to launch military operations without a clear exit strategy.

Trump's approval rating has sunk to the lowest point of his second term. The Fox interview was notable less for policy substance than for tone — the president who once promised $1.85 gas in Iowa appeared to be managing expectations rather than making promises. The acknowledgment that prices might not fall before voters head to the polls is the kind of statement a strategist makes when the internal numbers look bad and the candidate needs cover.

Brent crude closed above $101 per barrel on Monday. The blockade, if enforced as described, would remove even more Iranian oil from a market already short on supply. Whether Americans blame Iran or their own president for the price at the pump is the question that will define the midterm landscape.

-- THEO KAPLAN, San Francisco