JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup report first-quarter 2026 earnings today — the first comprehensive stress test of how America's largest banks navigated seven weeks of war, a Hormuz crisis, and the most volatile commodity markets since 2022. [1] [2]

The consensus estimates are substantial. JPMorgan is expected to report earnings per share of $5.49 on revenue of $48.9 billion. Wells Fargo's consensus sits at $1.24 EPS on $20.8 billion. Citigroup is projected at $1.84 EPS on $21.3 billion. [1] [2] All three numbers reflect banks operating where trading volumes have surged, credit markets have tightened, and the yield curve has steepened.

Goldman Sachs, which reported Monday, set the tone — and it was complicated. Goldman beat consensus on the top line, but its FICC trading revenue came in below expectations despite war-driven volatility. [3] If Goldman's traders could not fully capitalize on a once-in-a-decade volatility environment, what does that say about trading gains across the sector?

The distinction matters: volatility is profitable for trading desks, but dislocation — when markets gap and liquidity disappears — is not. The Hormuz crisis produced both. Early March generated tradeable volatility. The blockade announcement may have produced dislocation.

JPMorgan's results will be most closely watched. Jamie Dimon's annual letter described the environment as "among the most dangerous the world has faced in decades" — language that typically precedes elevated loan-loss provisioning. [1] The reserve build is where the real war-economy signal lives. If JPMorgan adds significantly to credit reserves, it signals that internal models are pricing in recession scenarios the equity market has not yet accepted.

Wells Fargo's results carry a different question. Its revenue is dominated by net interest income from consumer lending, not trading. [2] If consumer credit has begun to deteriorate — higher auto loan delinquencies, rising credit card balances carried past due — it marks where the war's economic effects cross from Wall Street to Main Street.

Citigroup, with the most globally diversified revenue base, offers the clearest read on international capital flows. [1] Its institutional clients group handles trade finance across the shipping corridors now disrupted by the blockade.

The earnings calls start at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. The numbers will tell one story. The loan-loss provisions will tell the one that matters.

-- THEO KAPLAN, San Francisco