One year ago today, Donald Trump stood in the Rose Garden and announced what he called "Liberation Day" — sweeping reciprocal tariffs that he promised would bring manufacturing home, balance the trade deficit, and make foreign companies pay. [1] Twelve months later, the Tax Foundation has calculated the bill: an average tax increase of $700 per American household in 2025, amounting to what the nonpartisan think tank calls a $3.2 trillion tax hike over the policy's projected duration. [2]

The White House reads the same year differently. The goods trade deficit fell 24 percent through February 2026, a figure the administration cites as proof that tariffs are reshaping global trade in America's favor. [1] Customs duties brought in $264 billion from January through December 2025, accounting for 4.9 percent of total tax revenue — up from roughly 2 percent before Liberation Day. [2] "America is winning," a White House spokesperson told the BBC, pointing to new factory announcements in semiconductors, steel, and electric vehicle batteries.

The Tax Foundation's counter is blunt: the tariffs "have not meaningfully altered the trade deficit" when services trade is included, and the deficit reduction in goods owes more to falling imports — Americans buying less — than to rising exports. [2] Agricultural exports dropped $5 billion as trading partners retaliated. More than 100,000 retail jobs disappeared as consumer spending shifted. [3]

The anniversary arrives during a blockade that has pushed oil above $97, adding energy costs on top of tariff costs. For a household already paying $700 more for imported goods, the timing is not liberating.

-- LUCIA VEGA, Sao Paulo