NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued its latest outlook Thursday projecting a 62% chance that El Nino conditions will develop by June through August 2026 and persist through the end of the year. Some models suggest the event could reach "super" intensity. [1]

The forecast lands on a West already weakened. The winter of 2025-2026 was the warmest since record-keeping began in 1895, producing a historic snow drought across the mountain ranges that feed reservoirs from Colorado to California. Snowpack levels in the Eastern Sierra are drastically below average, and the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power has warned it will need to rely on long-term reserves rather than seasonal melt. [2]

NOAA's seasonal drought outlook projects that drought will persist and expand across the West through summer, driven by low snowpack, early snowmelt onset, and record heat. The transition from La Nina to ENSO-neutral conditions occurred in early 2026, and El Nino development is expected to dominate by mid-summer.

For Western water managers, the math is straightforward. A strong El Nino typically brings heavier winter precipitation to the southern tier — but that relief arrives in late 2026 at the earliest. Between now and then, the region faces a summer of depleted reserves, elevated fire risk, and competing demands on every drop.

— DARA OSEI, London