United Airlines chief executive Scott Kirby privately pitched a merger with American Airlines to President Trump in late February, a conversation Bloomberg first reported Sunday and Reuters confirmed Monday. [1] American shares rose sharply on the report. Evercore raised its AAL price target to $22 from $16 explicitly citing merger speculation. [2] Brent crude eased to $98.05 on Friday — the fourth direction in four days — and airline stocks caught the bid.

A combined carrier would hold roughly 34.1 percent of the U.S. domestic market, more than Delta and well clear of Southwest. [2] The last time a deal of that scale was attempted — US Airways and American in 2013 — the Justice Department sued to block it and settled only after the carriers divested slots at seven airports. The merger Kirby is describing would not have that exit. There are no meaningful carriers left to take divested slots.

The X discourse is split along familiar lines. Merger-arbitrage traders have marked the spread and are betting the pitch is real. [1] Antitrust advocates, led by the Economic Liberties Project, are treating it as the first test of whether the second Trump DOJ will behave like the first — the one that blocked Halliburton-Baker Hughes — or like its successor. [3] The Allied Pilots Association has begun pre-positioning for a combined bargaining unit the merger would produce.

United reports April 21, American April 23. Kirby can either deny the pitch or explain it on the call. The price of that decision is visible in Friday's options tape.

-- AMARA OKONKWO, Lagos