Bill Ackman's Pershing Square Capital Management announced its $64 billion non-binding proposal for Universal Music Group on Tuesday, April 7. [1] The offer values UMG at €30.40 per share — a 78% premium on the prior close, structured as €9.4 billion in cash plus 0.77 shares in a Nevada-domiciled successor to be listed on the New York Stock Exchange, with former Disney president Michael Ovitz as proposed chairman and Lucian Grainge staying as CEO. The UMG board acknowledged receipt and declared confidence in current strategy. The deal requires two-thirds shareholder approval. [2]

The paper's April 20 feature argued the board response was pending. Today is Day 15, and the party whose answer actually determines the transaction has said nothing. Vincent Bolloré, the 74-year-old French billionaire who controls roughly 32% of UMG's voting rights through Bolloré Group's 18.5% direct stake and Vivendi's 13.4%, has not commented. [3] Ackman himself said on the investor call that his first call before launching the bid was to Bolloré, and the response was "music to my ears" — the words "Without Bolloré, we don't have a transaction."

Fortune ran the question Bolloré's silence makes unavoidable on April 17: "One man can kill Bill Ackman's $64 billion bid for Universal Music Group — and no one knows what he'll do." JPMorgan analysts note Bolloré does not need cash, has been a buyer rather than a seller of UMG shares, would not accept a discount to fair value, and historically prefers European listings. The silence is not procedural delay. It is the answer, rendered in the form of its withholding.

-- CAMILLE BEAUMONT, Los Angeles