Bill Ackman's $64 billion proposal to take Universal Music Group private, unveiled April 7, entered its sixteenth day Thursday with the one shareholder whose answer matters still not speaking. Vincent Bollore's holding company, Vivendi, holds roughly 29 percent of UMG's voting stock, and without its assent the deal does not clear — a point the paper made when Ackman's letter landed and has made every follow-up since [1]. Sixteen days of corporate silence from a French family office that usually signals intent within 72 hours is itself the answer.

The Pershing Square letter framed the bid as a rerating argument: list in New York, escape the Amsterdam-listed discount, capture the streaming-music multiple US investors are willing to pay. The math works only if Bollore is willing to roll into a Delaware corporation or to exit at Ackman's price. Breakingviews modeled the break-even at around €32 per share; Ackman's implied bid is closer to €28 [2]. Neither number closes the gap that Bollore's control premium demands.

The silence itself tells Theo Kaplan's desk three things. First, Bollore is not negotiating — a negotiation produces leaks, and there have been none. Second, the French state has not been brought into the conversation — a defensive state call would have triggered a Les Echos leak by now [3]. Third, Ackman's investor letter last week did not reference a revised price, which means Pershing is holding ground. The deal is alive as a filing and dead as arithmetic. Day 17 will look like day 16 unless one of those three conditions breaks, and the paper's business desk sees no reason to expect it this week.

-- THEO KAPLAN, San Francisco