The national average price of a gallon of regular gasoline reached $4.18 on Tuesday, the highest level since April 2022, according to AAA data. [1] The figure marks a 33% jump from a year earlier and a $1.20 increase since the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began on February 28. [1] Diesel rose to $5.46 a gallon, within reach of its all-time high of $5.82 set in June 2022. [2]

The four-year-high label arrived on the same morning Brent crude crossed $111. The paper's Tuesday account of why $108 made Hormuz a household price story traced the political consequence of a household price. Wednesday is the day the consequence acquired its threshold number: a year of inflation in two months, recorded at the pump.

Crude is the proximate driver. Oil accounts for 51% of the cost of a gallon of gasoline, AAA notes. [3] WTI traded near $99.93 on Wednesday morning; Brent at $111.20. [4] But the second mechanic is inventory. The American Petroleum Institute reported an 8.67-million-barrel drawdown in U.S. gasoline stocks for the week ended April 24, roughly double analyst expectations and the second consecutive weekly draw. [5] Total domestic gasoline supply has fallen from 232.9 million barrels to 228.4 million in two weeks. [6]

Two consecutive draws into a war premium produce the rare condition where the futures chart and the household chart agree. Pre-war, the average price stood at $2.98. [1] Pre-war, gasoline stocks were rising toward summer driving season. Now both have reversed, and the EIA's data is doing the arithmetic the political class has not.

Regional pressure is acute. Residents of Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Indiana face additional refinery-side strain — a power outage at a Northwest Indiana facility and a separate Illinois plant snag have lifted regional wholesale prices 40 to 50 cents above the prior April 9 peak, according to GasBuddy. [3] Columbus, Ohio's average rose from $3.93 on Monday to $4.29 on Tuesday — a 36-cent overnight jump. [7]

The political consequence is now public. The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday that President Trump told aides the blockade was hurting his polling and his party's midterm prospects, even as he chose to extend it rather than negotiate a Pakistan-relayed Iranian offer. [4] That admission is the first time the administration has acknowledged a price tied to its policy. The pump price is the metric the president was reading.

Economists expect the surge to outlast the war. The "rockets and feathers" pattern — pump prices rising fast on crude shocks and falling slowly when crude eases — implies that even a Hormuz reopening would leave consumers facing elevated prices through the summer. [3] Independent analysts cited by CBS expect the national average to remain above $4 through the fall. [3]

The April 9 peak of $4.17 came after a two-week ceasefire seemed to end the war. That price was a question. Tuesday's $4.18 — six cents above where it stood the prior morning, on the back of a stalled negotiation — is an answer. [1] AAA recorded the daily increase as the largest single-day jump in more than a month. [2]

The supply chart explains why no de-escalation rumor has been able to push prices down for long. With API recording two consecutive draws, EIA's official Wednesday print is positioned to confirm the pattern. [5] The household-price story now has its supply-side companion. The war premium is an inventory premium with a calendar attached.

The political class typically lags markets by weeks. The pump did not. On Tuesday morning, drivers in Michigan filled tanks at $4.34. By Tuesday afternoon, the White House was asked about the four-year-high label. By Tuesday evening, the WSJ had its blockade-extension report. The sequence — pump, question, leak — is the order in which the war's domestic price is being absorbed into the political record. [4]

-- DARA OSEI, London