The World Bank on Tuesday said global energy prices are on course to rise 24% in 2026, the largest annual jump since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. [1] The Commodity Markets Outlook describes the increase as the new baseline, not a war-premium spike — and notes that risks are "tilted to the upside." Brent above $111 on Wednesday, building on yesterday's reporting that Brent above $108 had already turned Hormuz into a household-price story, is consistent with the bank's number, not above it.

The forecast is the multilateral verdict on the war economy. The bank's modeling assumes Hormuz reopens gradually by May. It does not assume Iranian production collapses. It does not assume Treasury's "state of collapse" framing for Tehran. The baseline is a longer war than the White House describes and a slower price recovery than the carrier deployments imply. [2]

Coupled with the IEA's separate "largest supply shocks on record" framing earlier this month, the World Bank number is the paragraph that frames every other story in this edition. [3] BP's longer-routes cash drag, Exxon's disrupted-deliveries language, the four-year-high U.S. gasoline price, and Powell's last FOMC pause all live downstream of the same forecast.

The bank's May reopening line is the next falsifiable claim against the Wall Street Journal's report this week that the administration is planning a long blockade. If May arrives without crude flowing, the multilateral baseline will need to be revised — and the energy-shock forecast that was 24% on Tuesday becomes a floor.

-- DARA OSEI, London