AMD reports first-quarter results after the close Tuesday on consensus revenue of $9.84 billion and EPS up 33 percent year-on-year. [1] Data Center revenue is the watched line. Q4 2025 came in at $5.38 billion, up 39 percent. The Q1 print is the first chance to read whether the announced OpenAI 6GW MI450 deal and Meta 6GW MI450/EPYC deal are converting to firm purchase orders or whether they remain framework agreements with H2 2026 deployment dates and warrants vesting on volume.

Both deals carry the same architecture. AMD issued OpenAI a warrant for up to 160 million shares vesting in tranches as deployment scales from 1 to 6 GW. AMD issued Meta the same structure on the same terms. [2] The first 1 GW of OpenAI MI450s is committed to begin deployment in the second half of 2026; the first Meta 1 GW shipment is also H2 2026. [3] Q1 reflects neither. Investors will read the Tuesday call for the gross-margin trajectory, the back-half revenue guide, and any specific commentary on warrant accounting that signals deployment pace.

AMD shares ran 74 percent in April against Nvidia's 14 percent. [4] The relative-multiple trade has compressed: AMD trades at 31x forward earnings versus Nvidia's 28x — historically inverted from the longstanding AMD-discount. The print is the test of whether the inverted multiple is sustainable. A clean beat with raised guide and any directional confirmation on MI450 production volumes supports the spread. A guide that holds with no MI450-specific data points opens the discount.

The Nvidia overhang is the China question. The H200 December 2025 25-percent-cut approval has not produced revenue, per CFO Kress's last commentary. [5] AMD's MI300/MI325 China line carries the same structural ambiguity. The Tuesday call will be parsed for any specific China-export-control commentary alongside the U.S. data-center ramp.

-- THEO KAPLAN, San Francisco