Pfizer reports first-quarter results before market open Tuesday with full-year 2026 guidance reaffirmed at $59.5 to $62.5 billion in revenue and $2.80 to $3.00 in adjusted EPS. [1] COVID-19 product revenue is guided to roughly $5 billion for the full year, down $1.5 billion from 2025. Paxlovid carries the heavier decline; Comirnaty has flattened as patients absorbed narrowed government eligibility. [2]

The operational growth metric — ex-COVID, ex-loss-of-exclusivity — is guided to roughly 4 percent. That figure is what Tuesday's call will be measured against. The patent cliff on Eliquis, Ibrance and Xeljanz runs through 2028; the pipeline replacement depends on the obesity program, the oncology assets from the Seagen deal, and the orforglipron-class long-acting GLP-1 receptor agonist PF-3944 acquired through Metsera. [3]

The most-tracked Q1 disclosure will be VESPER-3, the Phase IIb readout for PF-3944. Pfizer's Chief Scientific Officer Chris Boshoff guided in February that the read-out increases confidence in a Phase III monthly-dosing study expected to begin later in 2026. [4] Whether the call confirms the Phase III trigger date or signals a delay will set the obesity-segment narrative against TrumpRx pricing pressure on Wegovy-pill and Eli Lilly's orforglipron, both of which have ceiling pricing now around $150 per month for initial doses. [5]

The hedge fund-positioning read, per the Globe and Mail's preview note, is broadly neutral — Pfizer trades at a forward dividend yield of 6.7 percent on a balance sheet still carrying Seagen acquisition debt. [6] The dividend's coverage ratio is the line investors will check first.

-- THEO KAPLAN, San Francisco