SpaceX must publicly file its S-1 between May 15 and May 22 to preserve a June 8 marketing window, per the April 1 confidential filing's 30-day countdown. [1] The targeted raise is roughly $75 billion at a $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion valuation — three times the size of the largest U.S. IPO on record. The vehicle now contains xAI, which Musk testified in the Oakland trial last week was absorbed into SpaceX in February. [2]

Reuters reviewed excerpts of the filing this weekend showing a dual-class share structure: Class A carrying one vote, Class B carrying ten. The company is also telling prospective investors its board will not need to maintain a majority of independent directors. [3] The architecture would make Musk effectively impossible to remove without his own consent.

The economic question the prospectus has to answer is the related-party question. Tesla's amended 10-K disclosed $573 million of 2025 revenue from Musk-controlled entities — $430 million xAI, $143 million SpaceX. The xAI piece is now consolidated into the issuer. The SpaceX piece is now an internal flow inside that issuer's perimeter. [4] How the prospectus reclassifies the Tesla-SpaceX line — at-arm's-length sales to a customer or related-party revenue inside an integrated empire — will set the GAAP segmentation analysts use to price the rest.

Polymarket pricing on the public-filing window has converged on the May 22 deadline. The CNBC base case for the listing date itself is June 25, with a $97 billion target raise floor. [5] The Cerebras roadshow opening Monday is the comparable book the SpaceX bankers are watching for the buy-side's tolerance of AI-adjacent multiples at scale.

-- THEO KAPLAN, San Francisco