Saudi Aramco's preliminary Q1 2026 results arrive Sunday May 10 ahead of the Tadawul open, with the earnings call Monday May 11 — T-5 and T-6 from Tuesday. AlJazira Capital's pre-print forecast has net profit at SAR 108.8 billion (about $29.0 billion), up 13.8 percent year-on-year and 56.7 percent quarter-on-quarter. Revenue is forecast at SAR 455.3 billion, up 6 percent year-on-year and 9.4 percent quarter-on-quarter. [1] [2]

The paper's Saudi Aramco prelim Q1 arrives May 10 with net profit up 56 percent quarter-on-quarter recorded the calendar Monday. The Tuesday news is the structural answer the print will provide to the UAE's OPEC+ exit. Crude-price increases of 24.8 percent quarter-on-quarter offset lower production of approximately 600 kbpd of crude — the Hormuz mechanic — and produce the 56.7 percent net jump. [3]

The OPEC+ baseline-recalibration mechanism finalized Sunday is the structural backdrop. Iran's 2027 production capacity will be set as the average of August, September, and October 2026 — three months that will be measured against the war-quarter pricing this Aramco print will document. The cartel's decision to recalibrate baselines on a war-quarter average makes the SAR 108.8B print not just an earnings event but a reference point for how 2027 quotas get assigned. The dividend signal is the secondary watch. Aramco's quarterly base dividend has been SAR 78 billion since 2024; the performance-linked component has run SAR 9 billion through Q4 2025. A larger Q1 distribution would absorb the war-quarter surplus the analyst stack expects. A conservative one would build cash for the post-war competitive cycle against the UAE.

The print also lands inside the GL 134B cliff and the IRGC 30-day clock. Three sovereign decisions pricing themselves through the same five-day window.

-- THEO KAPLAN, San Francisco