Consumers will spend a record $38 billion on Mother's Day, the National Retail Federation said, surpassing last year's $34.1 billion and the previous 2023 record of $35.7 billion. [1] Per-person spending will hit $284.25, also a record. Jewelry leads at $7.5 billion; special outings, $6.4 billion; electronics, $4.4 billion. Flowers, the largest participation category at 75 percent of shoppers, are up roughly 16 percent year-on-year — about $441 million in additional spend driven mostly by tariffs of 10 to 15 percent on Ecuadorian and Dutch imports and a weaker peso. [2]

The Birth Gauge fertility tally, drawn from CDC vital-statistics rapid releases for the year ending Q3 2025, reads 1.594 children per woman. [3] The 2024 figure was 1.626. Non-Hispanic White is 1.544, up slightly. Non-Hispanic Black is 1.465, down sharply. Hispanic is 1.893, also down. The gap between White and Black fertility is widening. The U.S. has not been at replacement (2.1) in nearly two decades; 1.594 is the lowest on record.

The two numbers do not contradict each other. They explain each other. Spending per mother climbs as the count of mothers contracts. The country is buying more for fewer; the per-capita ritual inflates as the demographic base it sits on softens. The flower retailers will book a good Sunday. The actuaries will note the underlying line.

Happy Mother's Day, in fewer households, more expensively each.

-- MAYA CALLOWAY, New York