Wood Mackenzie's base case for the post-Hormuz helium shock — a mid-March to mid-May Qatar-shutdown window — reaches its operative end this week. Spot helium prices are running 50 to 70 percent above March levels, and the Asian MRI-services market continues to roll its reserve drawdown rather than re-source. [1] TSMC, Samsung, and SK Hynix have so far kept fab uptime intact by pulling against the same buffers, with no new long-term contracts publicly signed since the Qatar liquefaction halt. [2]

The paper's May 1 brief on Project Vault carried the policy reading. The U.S. Federal Helium Reserve was sold to Messer in 2024, before the Iran war reshaped Gulf supply. The May 2025 critical-minerals list issued by the Interior Department did not include helium. The strategic reserve was abandoned the year before the demand it was built to meet re-emerged. [3]

The clinical exposure is concrete. Al Jazeera reported in March that MRI providers in Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states, and parts of South Asia had begun queueing non-urgent scans against helium-cost premia of 30 to 50 percent on cylinder deliveries. Fierce Biotech's May 6 piece carries the U.S. and European hospital side: reserve drawdowns are sufficient through May, contract renegotiations begin in June, and the second half of 2026 is the period in which elective scans face the actual rationing question.

The semiconductor side is less visible but harder to recover from. A helium-cooled cryopump is not a part you swap on short notice. The two-month window closes this week; the supply has not.

-- DARA OSEI, London