Bitcoin traded near $77,408 on Thursday morning, roughly flat to slightly up on the session. [1] The 30-year Treasury yield closed Tuesday at 5.198%, a near-nineteen-year high; Wednesday's bond auction printed 5.18%. [1] Three months ago, a yield spike of that magnitude would have produced a 4-6% crypto sell-off inside one trading day. On the eve of Kevin Warsh's swearing-in as Federal Reserve chair, it produced nothing.

Warsh takes the oath Friday at 11 a.m. Eastern at the White House — the first time a Fed chair has been sworn in there since Alan Greenspan in 1987. [2] Friday is also Bitcoin Pizza Day, the May 22 anniversary of the 2010 Laszlo Hanyecz pizza purchase that gave crypto its founding origin story. Stocktwits noted the overlap. [1] The symbolism is not subtle: a Fed chair the bond market reads as the executive branch's instrument, sworn in at the White House, on the date the crypto economy celebrates as its bootstrap holiday. The retail tape priced the joke.

The paper's Tuesday standard on Warsh's second week named the 30-year as the receipt. The eve-of-oath edition adds the second receipt: bitcoin's refusal to flinch. BoA's survey says 62% of fund managers see the 30-year reaching 6%; BMO's Lyngen flagged 5.25% as the institutional threshold. [1] Either threshold reached without a bitcoin sell-off would close the decoupling argument. As of Thursday, the data point is one week — the week before the oath.

The instrument is sitting still through what would, by older correlations, have been a noisy week. Warsh's first public policy signal does not arrive until the June 16-17 FOMC. The flat tape between the oath and the dot plot is itself the signal.

-- THEO KAPLAN, San Francisco