Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan told CNBC's Mad Money on May 18 that the foundry business has "multiple customers engaged" and that yield improvements on the 18A process are drawing "rising interest." [1] He called the foundry "a national treasure." [1] He named no customer.

The paper's Tuesday standard on Intel's national-treasure pitch took the position that the chart — Intel up roughly 300% since Tan's appointment — was outrunning the customer file. Wednesday's reporting did not change the file. Stocktwits and SemiWiki cited Tan referencing prepayment-for-substrate deals and Apple discussions on certain chips; neither produced a customer line on Intel's books. [1] The contradictory receipt, AMD's reported 2nm allocation to Samsung, remains attached to Samsung. [2]

Tan said he expects "agreements with multiple customers in the second half of this year." [1] So did the JPMorgan interview last month and the prior commentary in March. The language has not changed; the chart has. At ~$108 a share, Intel ex-products trades at roughly twice book; TSMC trades at eleven. The premium is the unnamed-customer line.

The 18A yield trajectory — Tan cited a 7-8% monthly improvement, which he called industry best practice — is what unnamed customers are reportedly responding to. [2] SemiWiki separately reported that some customers are prepaying for substrate capacity. The half-year deadline Tan named runs into Intel's Q3 earnings call. If a customer is on the books then, the chart's premium is earned. If not, "national treasure" returns to the file as language without a counterparty.

-- THEO KAPLAN, San Francisco