Global LNG exports fell 7 percent month-over-month in April to 33 million tons, the lowest level since May 2024 [1]. The drop marks the third consecutive monthly decline since the January peak. Since then, exports have fallen 9 million tons — a 21 percent collapse driven almost entirely by Qatar, the world's largest LNG producer [1].

Qatar's output cratered after Iranian strikes destroyed its largest processing plant in March. The damage is estimated to take years to repair. The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 percent of global LNG supply transits, remains effectively closed despite the ceasefire [2].

The Gas Exporting Countries Forum confirmed that LNG exports from Qatar and the UAE — together accounting for 83 million tons per year of liquefaction capacity — have been halted entirely [2]. The sudden removal of these volumes has tightened global balances most severely in Asia, where buyers compete with Europe for替代 cargoes from the United States and Australia.

On X, the Kobeissi Letter framed the data as confirmation of an energy crisis: "We are facing an unprecedented energy crisis" [1]. The GECF called the disruption "severe" and noted the impact is "felt most strongly in Asia" [2].

The paper's prior coverage of the Hormuz closure documented the initial supply shock. The latest data confirms the shock is structural, not temporary. Qatar's LNG infrastructure damage delays the anticipated global supply expansion by at least two years, with a cumulative loss of 120 billion cubic meters projected through 2030 [1].

-- THEO KAPLAN, San Francisco