Russia added 1.56 trillion roubles to cash in circulation from the start of the year through the period examined by the BBC. The outlet's analysis of Central Bank figures called it the largest increase for the comparable period outside the Covid-19 pandemic. The number is a measurable change. Its causes remain plural. [1]
The paper's July 17 market account kept falling AI valuations separate from oil at $88.10, because prices do not travel through the economy by one route. Sunday's cash record reaches farther inside ordinary transactions. It still cannot turn internet shutdowns, tax pressure, household caution and wartime slowdown into one cause.
BBC reported that mobile-internet shutdowns imposed during Ukrainian drone attacks have disrupted card payments across large parts of Russia. The government says the shutdowns are intended to counter the strikes. For a shopper facing a dead terminal, that security rationale does not make an electronic payment work. Cash becomes a backup technology: older, slower and independent of the mobile network at the point of sale. [1]
The link is credible without being complete. A shutdown in one region for one period does not explain every banknote circulating nationwide. The necessary operating record would pair the location and duration of each outage with terminal failures, ATM withdrawals, merchant cash requests and the return of notes through banks. The refreshed source provides examples and aggregate Central Bank data, not that full regional allocation.
Timing would help separate the mechanisms. Cash withdrawn immediately around an outage may reflect payment resilience; cash retained over months may reflect household caution or informal business use. The same note can pass through all three purposes, which is why circulation totals cannot identify an owner's motive. Regional series and transaction-failure records would show whether shutdown intensity and cash demand move together rather than merely occurring in the same wartime economy.
Tax changes create another route. Russia raised value-added tax from 20% to 22% in January and lowered the threshold at which small and medium-sized businesses must pay it, BBC reported. Pharmacies, restaurants, salons and corner shops have increasingly steered customers toward cash, which can allow businesses to understate turnover or pay wages outside formal payroll records. [1]
That mechanism also needs a denominator. A BBC-cited survey by Opora Russia, the country's largest small-business association, found about 6% of entrepreneurs said they had turned to "grey schemes" to manage the new tax burden. The survey does not assign the other 94%, quantify lost tax or show that every cash-seeking merchant evaded payment. A cash discount can be evidence worth investigating without becoming a national conviction. [1]
The banking data show movement but not motive. Russians withdrew 550 billion roubles from bank accounts in May, including 200 billion from fixed-term deposits, according to the Central Bank figures reported by BBC. Sberbank's chief financial officer warned that cash was not returning through collection, ATMs or self-service terminals and cited signs of wages being paid in envelopes. These records strengthen the business-use explanation while leaving household withdrawals and regional differences unresolved. [1]
Holding cash also carries a cost. BBC reported that a one-year, 100,000-rouble fixed deposit at Sberbank paid 10%. People withdrawing despite that return may value immediate access during outages, distrust future availability or need cash for merchants that request it. The source does not apportion those motives, and the aggregate cannot diagnose panic in an individual household.
The wider economy supplies pressure rather than a single answer. Russia's Economy Ministry cut its 2026 growth forecast to 0.4% in May, which would be the weakest growth since 2022, BBC reported. Oil and gas provide about a quarter of state revenue and had benefited from higher oil prices linked to the Iran war, while the broader economy slowed. Cash growth can coexist with oil income, high deposit rates and stubborn inflation. None cancels the others. [1]
This is where the official security frame and the economic frame diverge. Shutting mobile networks may be presented as defense against drones. It also disables part of the payment infrastructure on which tax collection and formal commerce depend. One branch of the state can pursue security while another loses visibility into transactions. The contradiction is institutional before it is ideological.
No verified X post was recovered for this article, so neither tales of economic collapse nor confident defenses of the shutdowns can be promoted into measured public consensus. BBC offers a stronger starting point: a Central Bank quantity, reported payment failures, tax changes, withdrawal data and testimony from businesses and bank officials. [1]
The next proof belongs at local scale. Match shutdown minutes to card declines; match withdrawals to households and firms; match cash wages and missing receipts to tax collections. Until then, 1.56 trillion additional roubles establishes a return to cash. It does not establish that any one policy, fear or evasion strategy caused the whole pile.
-- KATYA VOLKOV, Moscow