Hours after Lindsey Graham's funeral on Tuesday, the Senate voted 86-12 to advance the sanctions bill bearing his name, authorizing tariffs of up to 100 percent on the five biggest buyers of Russian oil. [1] [3] Senator Roger Wicker named China and India the "main culprits." [2] The cloture vote sets up passage; it is not passage, and the authority it would grant has imposed nothing.
The hypocrisy charge arrived the same day, and it has a paper trail. India's Russian crude imports — up 34 percent in June, roughly 36 percent of Russia's export revenue — were partly a product of Washington's own February waiver, issued after the Hormuz closure cut Gulf supply and the United States needed Indian demand to keep Russian barrels moving at capped prices. [2] The Hindu carried the Indian frame plainly: the U.S. wanted India to buy Russian oil. [2] A country steered onto a supply route by an American waiver is now named a culprit for using it.
Neither dominant frame holds the whole record. The resolve frame — bipartisan senators honoring their colleague's signature cause — skips the waiver entirely. [1] The coercion frame, loud on Indian strategic-affairs X, skips that nothing has been imposed: an 86-12 cloture is a procedural majority for a debate, and a 100 percent ceiling is an authorization, not a tariff. [3] What both skip is the separation-of-powers fight inside the bill — the objection from Neal and Wyden that tariff authority of this scale belongs to Congress in fact and not merely in name. No pole of the coverage quoted it.
The unresolved questions are the operative ones. A passage vote has no date. The administration has not said whether it would use the ceiling as an imposed duty or as negotiating leverage. And India, which has heard itself named a culprit before any tariff exists, must now decide whether its June volumes were a bridge or a habit. [2] The commercial answer will show up in tanker traffic long before it shows up in any statement — a diversification decision taken under an un-imposed threat is still a decision the threat caused.
There is also the question the cloture count itself poses. An 86-12 majority is a statement about the Senate's appetite for economic statecraft in the war's third year, and it arrived the day after the chamber buried the bill's author. [1] [3] Whether that appetite survives contact with the administration's own trade agenda — which has used tariff threats as opening bids and then settled — is the difference between a sanction regime and a negotiating chip with a dead senator's name on it.
Moscow watches all of this with the dry interest of a party that has seen sanction authorities outlive sanctioners. The Graham Act may yet pass. What it authorizes and what it does are different ledgers, and only one of them has been written.
One more record deserves keeping separate: the waiver itself. It was a wartime instrument, issued when the Hormuz closure made Gulf barrels unavailable and Russian barrels at capped prices were the release valve Washington chose. [2] Revoking its spirit by statute, a year and a half later and aimed at the buyers the waiver created, is not inconsistent in the law's eyes. It is inconsistent in the ledger's — and ledgers, unlike laws, keep both entries.
-- KATYA VOLKOV, Moscow