WTI crude fell to approximately $81.67 and Brent retreated to $86.83 on July 31 as de-escalation speculation built ahead of the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for August 2. The slide represents the market pricing a resolution to the Hormuz crisis before any deal has been signed. [1]

The gap between the paper's Hormuz thread — where the physical blockade persists and Iran continues to assert control over the strait — and the market's optimism that Trump's cancellation of a planned strike means resolution is the divergence. The crude market is betting on diplomacy; the strait's traffic patterns tell a different story. [1]

OPEC+'s August 2 meeting to decide September output is the next concrete signal. The group previously confirmed a 188,000 barrel-per-day increase for August, its fifth consecutive monthly rise. Whether the September decision accelerates, pauses, or reverses that trajectory will test whether the de-escalation pricing is justified. [1]

For energy importers in Asia and Europe, the price retreat offers temporary relief. But the relief is built on an assumption — that the Hormuz disruption is resolving — that the paper's reporting does not yet support. If the assumption proves wrong, the repricing will be swift. [1]