The International Trade Centre's latest analysis, published by the UN, confirms that disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has exposed the vulnerability of global trade to a single maritime chokepoint. Exports of natural gas dropped by a staggering 95%, and combined export volumes across 12 strategic products declined by 54%. [1]

Urea exports declined by 83%, followed by methanol at 80% and ammonia at 75%. Polymers of propylene, used for plastic packaging in consumer goods, were the least affected at 24%. The largest absolute losses were in crude petroleum oil exports, which fell by 28 million tonnes, followed by refined petroleum oils and liquefied natural gas. [1]

The Strait, located south of Iran, is responsible for around one quarter of global seaborne oil trade and a significant share of liquefied natural gas flows and fertilizers, including a third of globally traded urea. [1] Between 60% and 75% of the crude oil imported by Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan transits the Strait, compared with 38% for China and 42% for India. [2]

Alternative suppliers increased shipments for 10 of the 12 selected products across all reporting markets, yet these gains fully offset lower imports from Hormuz-dependent economies only for ammonia and polymers of propylene. [1] The finding suggests that trade diversion had begun but had not fully replaced disrupted supplies by April, as some markets may have drawn on inventories or strategic reserves, increased domestic production where possible, or reduced consumption.

The energy crisis is no longer a price story. Rerouting and replacement procurement are now structural supply-chain restructuring, not temporary adjustments. [2] The gap between price signals, which can recover quickly, and physical infrastructure, which cannot, is widening.

The ITC noted that 22 economies have trade measures in place related to the Strait of Hormuz disruption, with 35 active measures aimed at managing supply pressures and domestic market conditions. Governments have responded by restricting exports, facilitating imports, or otherwise influencing sourcing decisions. [1]