FactSet's latest Earnings Insight report puts the S&P 500's blended Q2 2026 earnings growth at 47.4%, with an 86% beat rate — the strongest since Q2 2021, when growth reached 91.6%. [1] The quarter marks the second consecutive quarter of earnings growth above 20% and the seventh consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth for the index.

The analytical detail is in the revisions. Analysts raised the S&P 500's bottom-up EPS estimate by 3.4% between March 31 and June 30, reversing a typical pre-season cut of 2 to 2.7%. [2] The increase was driven almost entirely by Energy sector estimates, which rose 61.5% tied to WTI crude averaging $92.55 per barrel, and Information Technology at 8.7%, tied to AI infrastructure capital expenditure.

Energy gains are war-priced. The average price of oil in Q2 2026 was 47% above the average for Q2 2025. At the sub-industry level, Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing reported 216% growth, Integrated Oil & Gas 161%, and Oil & Gas Exploration & Production 112%. [2] The sector's net profit margin expanded to 13.4% from a 5-year average of 9.6%.

Health Care is the only sector predicted to report a year-over-year decline in earnings, with estimates down 15.3% driven by Merck and Eli Lilly after both companies' EPS estimates were revised down sharply. [2] The divergence between Energy's war-driven profits and Health Care's lagging estimates tells the story of where money flows during conflict.

Amazon's positive EPS surprise was the biggest contributor to the increase in the index's overall earnings growth rate over the past week. Alphabet also contributed significantly. Together, the two tech giants drove blended growth from 38.0% a week ago to 47.4% today. [3]

The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 stands at 20.4, above the 5-year average. For Q3 and Q4 2026, analysts are calling for earnings growth rates of 26.8% and 24.4%, respectively. For the full calendar year, predictions stand at 24.1%. [1]