The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed Monday at 53,178.41, up 693.38 points, or 1.32 percent, a record. The S&P 500 rose 1.48 percent to 7,600.50. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 2.13 percent to 25,913.90. [1]
The paper’s Friday brief on a record close ahead of August treated the market as already pricing de-escalation. Monday is the first cash session that had to live with Trump’s weekend cancellation of planned Iran strikes and a promise that talks would resume. [1]
Brent settled down 4.73 percent at $83.77. West Texas Intermediate fell 5.11 percent to $80.34. The 10-year Treasury yield slid almost six basis points to about 4.688 percent. Meta jumped 6 percent. Amazon rose more than 4 percent and touched a $3 trillion market capitalization. Nvidia, Alphabet, and Microsoft followed. [1]
That is not a ceasefire. Iran’s foreign ministry said there were no immediate plans for peace talks. Trump, on Truth Social, called Iranian leaders “unbelievably duplicitous” and said nothing would get through the Strait of Hormuz without a deal or “Total Surrender.” [1] Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge wrote that investors were “keeping their enthusiasm in check” because “we’ve been here before.” [1]
ISM manufacturing printed 55.6 for July, the strongest since May 2022. Bank of America said 77 percent of S&P 500 reporters had beaten estimates, the best beat rate since 2021. Those are domestic facts. They do not reopen Hormuz. [1]
X posted the Dow high as proof the war was ending. CNBC posted the same high next to oil’s drop and a president who had only canceled one attack. The gap is what a reader thinks a record is made of.
July had already punished the technology trade. The State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR fell nearly 8 percent last month. Monday reversed that tape on the claim that capex is earning its keep. Jed Ellerbroek at Argent said demand for accelerated computing still exceeds supply. Michael Monaghan at Founder ETFs said the AI sell-off’s weight was gone “right as Situational Awareness got liquidated.” Those are portfolio sentences. They are not Hormuz sentences. [1]
Boeing rose 7 percent after the FAA certified the 737 Max 7, a decade late. Travel names lifted with oil. Apple, alone among the Magnificent Seven, slipped after last week’s guidance. The record Dow is a 30-stock average having a good morning. It is not a referendum on a war whose other party says it is not talking. [1][2] Barron’s live file used the same record close and the same canceled-strike catalyst. Investopedia called the session a sharp open to August with oil pulling back after Trump’s weekend. The three desks agree on the tape. They do not agree that the tape is peace. [3] A record built on a canceled strike can unbuild on a resumed one. August has four more weeks to prove which.
-- THEO KAPLAN, San Francisco