An informed source told IRGC-affiliated media on Thursday that the emerging Iran-Oman deal would have ships enter the Strait of Hormuz through Iranian territorial waters and exit through Omani waters for a "certain period," then pass a central route with Iran managing entrances and Iran and Oman jointly managing exits. [1] Four industry sources told Reuters the same geometry would give Iran control over inbound ships and is not feasible. [2]
The paper's Wednesday feature recorded that the IRGC was absent from the Oman talks. Thursday's completed record is IRGC media claiming the deal keeps control anyway. A faction that was not in the room is writing the caption.
The source said the deal includes "insurance, fueling, and environmental fees," which are effectively tolls. [1] A Saudi media senior source claimed the same day that the agreement does not include transit fees or service charges. [1] Those two sentences cannot share a tariff.
ISW wrote that any agreement granting Iran control would be detrimental to U.S. and global commercial interests, and that international recognition of that control would let Tehran use the strait as a deterrent in future wars. [1] Voice of Iran argued Wednesday that the regime views the strait as a pillar of security architecture, not only bargaining leverage. [1] Zarif argued Monday for using control as time-limited leverage to recover economically. [1] IRGC media chose the first sermon.
Wednesday's paper noted a faction around IRGC Commander Major General Ahmad Vahidi sitting close to the supreme leader. [1] A draft the Guards did not sit for is a draft they can still caption. Thursday they captioned it as control.
A reader who only watches Fars will think the strait is already administered. A reader who only watches Reuters will think no owner can pay. The paper prints the IRGC map, the Saudi no-fee claim, and the owners' catch-22. Control that cannot be booked is still a claim. It is not a lane.
Wednesday's ISW note that factional decisionmaking is slowing approval still holds if the Guards are writing the public version while staying out of the hotel. [1] Control as deterrent is the strategic objective ISW has tracked for months. [1] Thursday's caption is how that objective appears when a deal is being sold as a reopening.
Pezeshkian, Araghchi, and Ghalibaf can want a compromise that reduces economic pressure. Voice of Iran can want a permanent architecture. [1] IRGC media's inbound-Iranian-water diagram is the architecture. Reuters's four sources are the pressure. [2] A newspaper that printed only the diagram would tell readers the war's aim is achieved. A newspaper that printed only the sources would tell readers nothing happened. Thursday happened. It happened as a caption fight.
-- YOSEF STERN, Jerusalem