Four shipping-industry sources told Reuters on Thursday that a proposed Iran-Oman deal giving Tehran control over ships entering the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz is not easily workable, because of U.S. sanctions and insurance clauses that punish any payment. [1] A senior Iranian source said Tehran wants fees of 5 to 7 percent of cargo price. Oman is discussing about 3 percent. Washington wants none. [1]
The paper's Wednesday lead recorded that the Hormuz draft split on whether Mojtaba Khamenei had approved it. Thursday did not produce a signature. It produced owners saying the map cannot be booked.
Until U.S. and Israeli airstrikes at the end of February, the strait carried about a fifth of world oil and other goods with no fees. [1] Control of that water is still the largest sticking point in efforts to end the war. The latest proposal, a senior Iranian source told Reuters this week, would let Tehran intervene on inbound traffic while outbound ships follow a route between Iran and Oman, with exit clearance granted through Oman after notifying Iran. [1] IRGC-affiliated media sold the same geometry as control. [2] Industry sold it as a trap.
The world's leading shipping associations sent an open letter this week to the U.N. shipping agency. Safe, predictable passage without unnecessary impediment is fundamental to supply chains, economic stability, and energy security, they wrote. Compulsory charges through the strait for transit or service fees were "a toll in all but name." The letter said such charges would set a precedent that could undermine the legal framework for international straits. [1]
A two-way traffic-separation scheme, adopted by the U.N. agency in 1968 with regional agreement, already splits sailing corridors through Iranian and Omani waters. [1] The International Maritime Organization said it could not comment on the proposals. In July its governing council said countries around the strait should guarantee non-discriminatory, unimpeded transit through that scheme, free of tolls and charges. [1]
Fees create a compliance problem that is not theoretical. The United States has sanctioned the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, which Iran set up in May to operate the waterway. Treasury has also prohibited U.S. persons from receiving Iranian government services related to a "guarantee of safe passage." Any payment could lead to asset freezes, the industry sources said. They declined to be named. [1]
Lloyd's Market Association introduced, in late July, a clause for war underwriters that terminates cover if a vessel has paid a transit fee, toll, or other charge for Hormuz passage. Ships already pay an extra war-risk premium to insure damage in transit. "Under the clause, insurers have no liability to indemnify any such payment and, where such a payment has been made, are discharged from obligations in respect of the relevant vessel," the LMA said in July. [1] One insurance source called it a catch-22: Iran aims to charge; the clause forbids covering anyone who pays. [1]
That is Thursday's completed record. Axios and AP argued Wednesday about a signature. IRGC media argued Thursday about control. [2] Owners argued about a payment they cannot make without losing cover and a payment they cannot refuse without losing a lane. A reader who only watches Iranian television will think a route is open. A reader who only watches Reuters will know no owner can use it.
UK Maritime Trade Operations reported on August 5 that a vessel's crew heard two explosions while passing through Omani territorial waters. [2] Iran has repeatedly targeted hulls on the Omani workaround because that traffic undermines a claim of full control. [2] The draft is a map. The water is still a targeting folder.
Tehran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said Wednesday that Iran and Oman had agreed geographic coordinates and were preparing a joint statement on technical, legal, security, and environmental points. He said third parties should not obstruct the process, and that the agreement cannot guarantee safety while a U.S. naval blockade remains. [3] President Trump told Fox the talks were moving along very nicely and that the strait would open soon or they would get hit very hard. [3] Those sentences shared a news cycle. They cannot share a booking note.
A Saudi media "senior source" claimed Thursday that the agreement does not include transit fees or service charges. [2] IRGC media said the deal includes insurance, fueling, and environmental fees that are effectively tolls. [2] Reuters's senior Iranian official put numbers on the Iranian ask. [1] Three versions of the same unsigned page is not a tariff. It is a fight over whether a tariff exists.
All Iranian factions the Institute for the Study of War has named agree Tehran must keep a certain level of control. They disagree on tactics. [2] Voice of Iran, the Supreme Leader's website newspaper, argued Wednesday that the regime views the strait as a pillar of security architecture, not only bargaining leverage. Former foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif argued Monday that Iran has a time-sensitive window to use control as leverage and recover economically. [2] A draft that owners cannot pay into is a draft that serves the first argument and starves the second.
CENTCOM still reports a blockade of Iranian ports. Lloyd's Wednesday brief still counted 84 weekly transits and called confidence absent. Sixty-five ships that entered during the memorandum's calm have not left. [4] Thursday's industry sources did not contradict that table. They explained it. Mixed messaging is not a mood. It is a sanctions list plus a war-risk clause plus two explosions in Omani water.
Credibility is whether the next adjective moves a tanker. "Soon" did not. "Approved" did not. "Agreed route" did not. "Not feasible" is the first sentence owners will print on a fixture. The paper will not invent a published coordinate list, a published tariff, or a Khamenei letter. It will print the 5-to-7 percent ask, the 3 percent Omani talk, the zero Washington wants, the LMA clause, the Strait Authority sanctions, and the open letter that called the fee a toll. [1]
April's ceasefire taught both sides a clock that expires. June's memorandum taught them a text that never quite appears. Monday taught them last chance and decapitation can share a briefing. Wednesday taught them Axios and AP can disagree about a signature. Thursday taught them that even if a signature appears, the hull still cannot pay. [1][2]
Iraqi talk of a Basra-to-Aqaba pipeline, Saudi dependence on Yanbu, and a Houthi land war in Marib are not color for this lead. They are the other gates. A reader who only watches Muscat will think energy is about to reopen. A reader who only watches owners will know the catch-22 is the story. Both miss the IRGC claim that control is the point of the deal. [2]
Names still matter. Baghaei can announce coordinates. Vahidi does not need a hotel badge if he has the leader's ear. Pezeshkian can want a compromise and still lose to a corps that treats fees as sovereignty. Jonathan Saul's four sources do not sit in those rooms. They sit in the rooms that buy cover. [1]
Mines in the recognized transit scheme remain the sixty-day excuse from earlier diagrams. Clearance is real work. It is also a clock that can be extended. A temporary inbound-outbound split that lasts sixty days and then another sixty is not temporary. Charterers already know how habits in this strait become tariffs. Thursday's associations said so in writing to the IMO. [1]
If a joint statement appears this week, it will have to survive the LMA clause, Treasury's safe-passage ban, Gharibabadi's broader outbound claim from Wednesday, and two explosions already filed in Omani water. [1][2] If it does not, Thursday's industry no joins April and June as a shipping rumor that moved desks more than maps. The next edition will owe the reader a check against both clocks. This one owes the reader the owners' sentence: not feasible.
A newspaper that covered only IRGC media would tell readers Iran kept the strait. A newspaper that covered only Trump would tell them it opens soon. The completed Thursday record is a fee owners cannot pay, a clause that drops cover if they try, a sanctions list on the authority that would collect, an open letter that named a toll, and a waterway that still answers with explosions. That is enough for a lead. It is not enough for a lane.
The photograph Reuters published Thursday showed vessels near the strait as seen from Musandam. [1] Pictures of hulls are not bookings. Musandam is the rock from which you watch a waterway that used to be free. The open letter said freedom of transit is not a courtesy Iran may price. The LMA said a priced transit is an uninsured transit. Treasury said a priced transit is a sanctioned service. Three institutions, three refusals, one unfinished draft. Thursday is the day the refusals met the draft in public.
-- YOSEF STERN, Jerusalem