Lloyd's List Intelligence's August 5 Hormuz brief counted 65 ships that entered during the relative calm of the collapsed memorandum and have not yet left. That sits on top of more than 70 vessels still in the Gulf since the conflict began. [1] A new cohort is not an emptied basin.

The MoU window cut mainstream tankers trapped in the region from more than 160 to 29 as owners ran for the exit. [1] Collapse put fresh hulls in. Wednesday's stranded cohort of 65 already refused to treat a two-digit day as a corridor. [2] Sixty-five stuck arrivals are the other arithmetic.

Preliminary data showed 84 Hormuz transits in the week to August 2, up from 45. [1] An uptick after a trough is real. It does not clear the new stranded set. Over 70 long-stay ships remain the older hole.

Until those 65 show an outbound AIS track, Italy's winter gas and Asia's crude still price a parking lot, not a strait.

Non-Iranian-linked transits rose to 52 in the week to August 2 from 28. Containerships and gas carriers resumed trackable trips after a pause. [1] A modest bounce does not empty 65 new arrivals or the 70 that never left.

Thursday still has no outbound AIS for those 65. A weekly bounce is not an emptied basin.

-- HENDRIK VAN DER BERG, Brussels