Kevin Warsh gives his first Jackson Hole keynote as Federal Reserve chair on Friday, August 28, at 10 a.m. Eastern, closing a symposium that runs August 27 through 29 under the theme of financial innovation and its implications for payments and policy. [1][2] The Fed's official calendar carries the entry; the mountain resort is about to host its most parsed half hour of the autumn. [1]

Anticipation is doing strange work this year, because the speaker has dismantled the tradition the event runs on. Keynotes once existed to preview pivots. Warsh has refused forward guidance as a matter of philosophy, and after July's meeting he told reporters he would rather raise big questions than referee near-term debates, adding that the Fed is not constrained by market prices in its decisions. [3] Translated: do not expect September's answer on Friday.

The market is pricing anyway. Most traders still expect a hold next month, with a minority betting on hikes from the current 3.50 to 3.75 percent range — a split that exists precisely because the chair declines to settle it. [4] A central bank that will not guide makes every data print louder, every dissenter louder, and every syllable in Wyoming louder still.

His predecessor used this podium to reset expectations for years ahead. Warsh will stand at it owning the opposite asset: the ability to say nothing and move everything by noon. [2][3]

-- THEO KAPLAN, San Francisco