Seven commodity ships sailed through the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, half the previous day's count, according to Kpler data — four entered, three exited, and not one was a very large crude carrier or an LNG tanker. [1] One very large gas carrier did leave, hauling propane and butane by what trackers call the Iranian route. [1] At Bab el-Mandeb, traffic slowed to 23 ships against 34 on each of the two prior days. [1] Before February, Hormuz carried roughly a fifth of the world's crude and LNG. [1]

The paper recorded the UAE's formal suspension of trade with Iran on Thursday — the first Gulf-state break, closing a $21 billion import gateway Tehran cannot replace. Now President Trump threatens sanctions on Iran's trading partners, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent promises America's "full might and force" against anyone who keeps doing business with Tehran. [2] Brent crude gained 6.4 percent this week on the threat. The earlier peace deal expired this week; neither side has moved to restart talks. [2]

The watch item is insurance. War-risk premiums already price each Gulf voyage as a gamble — in spring a loaded Suezmax paid $7.5 million for a single transit, more than its freight. Underwriters reprice upward faster than they relent. [3] If Monday's rollout names names, per-voyage quotes move first.

-- DARA OSEI, London