Iran's economic managers broke publicly with the war on Friday, and the hardliners answered within hours. President Masoud Pezeshkian said the war must end at some point and "it would be better to end it now." [1] Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warned the country cannot endure, whatever its military strength, if its people go hungry and money stops circulating. [1] Central Bank Governor Abdolnasser Hemmati had already conceded that oil exports have nearly ceased. [1]

The response was same-day. IRGC-linked Fars News called conciliatory positions weakness that invites further attacks. [1] Mahmoud Nabavian, a Paydari front member of parliament's national security committee, wrote that calls for peace under current conditions amount to "surrender." [1][3] Second Deputy Speaker Hamidreza Haji argued a day earlier that rising oil prices mean Iran is winning. [1]

The Institute for the Study of War reads the structure plainly: the collapse of the US-Iran memorandum strengthened the anti-concession camp around IRGC commander Ahmad Vahidi, which tolerates hunger better than compromise and may respond to unrest by securitizing society rather than changing course. Decision-making can lag far behind deterioration. [1]

Washington's answer is Operation Economic Fury — secondary sanctions on anyone still trading with Tehran. [2] As Crisis Group's Ali Vaez puts it, pressure without an open door is an exercise in futility. [2] Tehran's own economists now say so too.

-- YOSEF STERN, Jerusalem