US Open week begins with qualifying Tuesday, the draw Thursday and main-draw play Sunday at Flushing Meadows — and a men's board that no longer resembles the one memorized in July. [1] Jannik Sinner has withdrawn with a persistent knee injury, and Carlos Alcaraz, the defending champion returning from a wrist problem that has sidelined him since Wimbledon, now sits atop the odds as an overwhelming favorite. [2][3]

That repricing has a Cincinnati fingerprint. This paper filed Gauff's straight-sets title and Arthur Fils' breakthrough Sunday, and the futures market spent Monday digesting both. Fils arrives 10-0 in deciding sets this year; Alcaraz returns having not played a competitive hard-court ball since early July, which is why prediction markets show historic volatility around his fitness. [1][2] Traders have pushed more than $17 million through the champion markets since they opened. [2]

The women's board is steadier. Aryna Sabalenka is +200 to become the first three-peat winner here since Serena Williams, backed by a 39-4 record on hard courts this season; Iga Swiatek is +550 after her Canadian Open title, Elena Rybakina +600, and Coco Gauff +800 off her Cincinnati crown. [1] Sabalenka has not lost in New York since the 2023 final and owns fourteen straight US Open wins. [2]

Odds are not outcomes. But week one in Queens will be played, priced and argued without the world No. 1 in it, and every bracket pool should start there.

-- AMARA OKONKWO, Lagos