Invest 96L still has not organized into a tropical depression as of Wednesday, and its odds of doing so have ticked down slightly from where they stood at the start of the week. [1]

Tuesday's edition reported the system carrying roughly 70 percent formation odds under a Hurricane Center outlook that warned conditions could turn less conducive by the weekend. That caveat has started to bite: the National Hurricane Center's Wednesday afternoon advisory puts the formation chance at a medium 60 percent both through 48 hours and through the full seven-day window -- a mild step down, not the sharp deterioration the paper's earlier file worried about. [1]

The system, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, has changed little in organization over the past several hours as it tracks west-northwest near 20 mph. [1] A separate disturbance, Invest 95L, ran into hostile conditions overnight and is no longer expected to strengthen at all -- one of the season's waves that answered the El Niño shear question the hard way.

If Invest 96L does organize, the next name on the list is Dolly -- a coincidence timed awkwardly against the death of Dolly Parton on Tuesday, since storm names rotate on a six-year cycle set years in advance and have nothing to do with the person. [1] The forecast question that actually matters -- whether this wave survives the shear wall that has shredded every other Atlantic system this year -- remains exactly where Tuesday's file left it: unresolved.

-- DARA OSEI, London