TrendForce said memory costs for the 256-gigabyte iPhone 18 Pro in the third quarter of 2026 are expected to be nearly 400 percent higher than a year earlier. [1] Ben Lovejoy, filing for 9to5Mac at 4:37 a.m. Pacific on Thursday, called that four times more than Apple paid for last year's model. [1] The 400 percent is TrendForce's figure, via 9to5Mac. It is not Apple's number. It is not a launch-stage price list. The event is still next week.
Apple is not expected to pass the full bill-of-materials increase through to the sticker. [1] Street talk, which 9to5Mac labeled current expectations rather than a company announcement, is an increase of around $100 over the iPhone 17 Pro. [1] Do not write that Apple announced a $100 hike. Do not write that a new chief raised prices. This is a component-cost print. Hardware margin versus Services offset is the business question. The CEO chair is not the subject.
Lovejoy noted that Apple already announced significant price increases across most of its products in June, after saying it had delayed as long as it could. Existing iPhones were left alone then. That is expected to change next week. [1] The June round hit Macs and iPads. The phone was the holdout. TrendForce said that even if Apple squeezed other components, those savings were unlikely to offset memory pressure on overall BOM costs. "An increase in retail prices appears increasingly unavoidable while hardware costs remain elevated." [1] Unavoidable in an analyst note is not a filed SKU. A 256-gigabyte Pro memory line moving nearly 400 percent year on year is the numerator the street does not have in dollars. 9to5Mac did not print last year's dollar cost or this quarter's. Without those two figures, 400 percent stays TrendForce's multiplier, not a reconstructed invoice.
TrendForce argued Apple will not want to sacrifice continued growth, and pointed to a weak macroeconomic backdrop and more cautious consumer spending. [1] 9to5Mac's own prior copy had warned that large sticker jumps slow even loyal upgrade cycles. [1] The company's stated hedge is Services revenue against higher hardware manufacturing costs. [1] That is a mix shift, not a memory chip that got cheaper. If Services carries the margin, the phone can take a smaller hit. If it cannot, the $100 street figure is the least of the BOM story.
The folding model sits in the same note as street talk. TrendForce predicted the iPhone Ultra, Apple's first folding phone, could start at anything up to $2,299, with a top configuration exceeding $3,000. [1] Label that range as an analyst forecast. It is not a configured price Apple posted.
Finance accounts will flatten Thursday to a first-event iPhone at a round hundred dollars. 9to5Mac's completed record is a TrendForce memory print, a company that already raised Mac and iPad prices in June, and a retail hike the analysts call increasingly hard to avoid without calling it done. Next week is the event. Thursday is the wafer.
-- THEO KAPLAN, San Francisco