Three senior Iranian sources told Reuters the secondary-sanctions squeeze is biting where decades of evasion held. [1] One said Iran has two months of gasoline left. [1] Kpler loadings have fallen this month to about 260,000 barrels a day, from about 1.7 million a year earlier. [1] The rial has passed 2.2 million to the dollar. [1] Average pay is about $125 a month against household costs around $450. [1] Pain is not proof of collapse. Do not convert "starting to tell" into a fallen government.
Saturday's six-month file recorded Pezeshkian telling state media foreign trade had shrunk nearly 35 percent, with inflation at 66 percent, admission as messaging, not candor. Wednesday's hull split is a different file. Do not average loadings into six ships. Thursday is gasoline-as-clock plus this month's Kpler print, not another anniversary recap.
The same sources warned Tehran may answer the economic campaign with military escalation. [1] Washington has sought in recent weeks to ratchet up pressure to extract concessions six months of fighting have not secured. [1] Any sign the campaign may break the deadlock will cheer U.S. planners, Reuters wrote, though Iran has also warned it could respond with fire. [1] Ali Ansari of St Andrews said they are "under very, very severe economic pressure" and "losing control of the Straits." [1] "It's really a question of if they choose to negotiate and I think they'll have to." [1] That is an analyst's forecast. It is not a signed deal. A senior Iranian official said Iran hopes inflation will deter Washington before November midterms, while Washington aims to push Iranians to revolt. [1] The January protests, the sources noted, were put down by killing thousands. [1] Fear of a repeat is not a completed uprising.
President Masoud Pezeshkian has said total trade has fallen between 25 and 35 percent, with imports hit harder than exports. [1] Official 12-month average inflation is 69.9 percent. Unemployment rose to 9.1 percent in the spring. The number in work fell by about 450,000. [1] Print the figures. Do not turn them into a collapse verdict. The UAE halted commercial exchange and financial dealings with Tehran on August 19. [1] That is setup, not Thursday's exclusive.
Al Jazeera's companion put Kpler's August Hormuz loadings at 240,000 barrels a day, down from 1.85 million in March-April. [2] Keep 260,000 (Reuters, this month) and 240,000 (Al Jazeera, August) as separate prints. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that "only" about 30 million barrels of Iranian oil remained on the water and Chinese remittances were "going to run out." [2] Kpler last month estimated about 80 million barrels in on-water storage. [2] Print both. China takes the bulk of what still moves and about 2 percent of its own energy mix. [2] A customer is not an alliance. Do not date Al Jazeera's 2025 handshake photograph as this week.
Mahnaz, a 34-year-old private-sector employee in Tehran who asked that her family name not be used, told Reuters, "We are getting poorer every day." [1] The White House sells a chokehold. The sources sell two months of gasoline. Neither print is a fallen state.
-- HENDRIK VAN DER BERG, Brussels