The World Meteorological Organization said El Niño is firmly established and is expected to intensify to very strong intensity before peaking toward the end of 2026, with climate impacts continuing well into 2027. [1] Forecasts from WMO Global Producing Centres show an "exceptionally high likelihood of nearly 100%" that El Niño will persist through February 2027. "This is the first time that a WMO El Niño/La Niña Update has been so unequivocal." [1]
Thursday's climate file was UNEP and COP31 treating overshoot as the negotiating object. Friday is not a second 1.5 story. It is an ENSO classification and a persistence call. Do not glue it onto Hurricane Lowell. Do not write a measured 2027 disaster.
Agence France-Presse, moving on Friday, sold the strongest El Niño in 40 years of comparable records. [3] WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo told reporters in Geneva, "If this trajectory continues, it may be stronger than anything since our monitoring began." [3] That is a trajectory sentence. It is not a completed peak. The agency classifies events as weak, moderate, strong, or very strong. Very strong means an Oceanic Niño Index above 2°C. [3] Wilfran Moufouma-Okia, WMO's climate prediction chief, told AFP the category is open: "We know where it starts; we don't know where it ends." The average forecast points toward an anomaly peaking at 3.6°C. [3] A forecast peak is not a local flood, drought, or death.
The numbers already in the water are large enough without the superlative. The Niño 3.4 index averaged +1.5°C in May–July 2026 and +2.0°C in July. Weekly values from late July through mid-August ran about +2.2°C to +2.6°C. [1] In some areas, subsurface temperatures were more than 8°C above average in July and early August. [1] Saulo called that reservoir fuel. She also said El Niño "has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies" and that droughts and floods already visible should increase as the event intensifies. [1] "This exceptional El Niño demands exceptional preparation and response." [1]
UN Secretary-General António Guterres said, "El Niño is being supersized before our eyes." He put the planet in "the danger zone of extreme weather." [1] AFP ran that as the highway. WMO's own note is colder. El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon and is not caused by climate change. [1] The strength of an event does not translate directly into the magnitude of impacts in any region. Effects vary by location and season and can be modified by other drivers, including the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. [1] [2] For September–November 2026, multi-model forecasts show above-normal temperatures across almost all land areas and a classic rainfall response to a strong Pacific El Niño. [1] That is a seasonal outlook. It is not a 2027 body count.
ENSO-neutral conditions or a return to La Niña are not anticipated during the outlook period. [2] The IOM's Thursday appeal for $110 million to protect 4.9 million people is a preparedness request, not Friday's completed record. [3] AFP sells strongest in 40 years. WMO's record is a classification and a near-certain persistence call. Those are two different sentences. Only one of them is a measurement.
-- KENJI NAKAMURA, Tokyo