At 11 p.m. HST Friday, 0900 UTC Saturday, Hurricane Lowell's eye sat near 13.3 north, 161.9 west, about 625 miles south-southwest of Lihue and 610 miles south-southwest of Honolulu, moving west at 7 mph with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph and a central pressure of 925 mb. [1] It is a Category 4 hurricane. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. "Watches could be required for portions of the westernmost Hawaiian Islands on Saturday." [1]
Friday's file used Advisory 35: Category 4 at 150 mph, still no watches, and a likely Saturday watch the National Hurricane Center had forecast and not posted. Saturday UTC does not write the landfall. It writes a documented Category 5 peak, a Category 4 dip, hurricane hunters in the eye, and the calendar day of the promised watch, without the watch.
The peak was Advisory 36, 5 p.m. HST Friday, 0300 UTC Saturday. Center 13.3 north, 161.4 west, about 615 miles south-southwest of Lihue and 600 miles south-southwest of Honolulu. Maximum sustained winds 160 mph. Pressure 922 mb. Category 5. [2] NOAA Hurricane Hunters measured a pressure fall of about 8 mb since 18 UTC and 700-mb flight-level winds of 153 kt in the northeastern eyewall. The discussion raised intensity to 140 kt. [3] Hurricane-force winds still reached 60 miles from the center. Tropical-storm-force winds still reached 160. [2] No coastal watches. Same Saturday-watch sentence. [2]
Six hours later the hunters came back with a different instrument reading, not a different storm. Air Force Reserve data put the pressure at 925 mb and flight-level winds at 141 kt. The eye had become slightly more ragged. Intensity was lowered to 135 kt, 155 mph, Category 4. [1] [4] Some fluctuations are possible over the next day. A gradual weakening trend is expected by early next week. [1] Do not treat Advisory 36's 160 as the edition's live intensity. Advisory 37 is the latest completed public advisory. Archive pages for Advisories 38 and 39 returned 404 at fetch. The live Central Pacific product was still Advisory 37.
The track is the sentence weather accounts will rewrite. A general west motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through Saturday, then a sharp turn north or north-northeast on Sunday, bringing Lowell close to the westernmost main Hawaiian Islands Monday and Monday night. [1] [4] Key message one is unchanged. Lowell is forecast to be near major hurricane strength then. There is a risk of storm surge and wind impacts, particularly Kauai County. "Watches will likely be issued on Saturday." Residents should have a hurricane plan in place. [4] Saturday morning's completed record still reads: there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. [1]
Honolulu's Star-Advertiser, on a Saturday masthead, led with the Category 5 peak at 160 mph and wrote that hurricane watches could be required for Kauai County today. [5] That is a local forecast of a product. It is not the product. Gov. Josh Green briefed at the Capitol Friday with Kauai Mayor Derek Kawakami remote. Maj. Gen. Stephen Logan said 146 Hawaii National Guard soldiers and airmen were activated, including 20 on Kauai Friday and 16 more arriving Saturday. The Department of Health is opening three hurricane refuge centers on Kauai. Kauai Island Utility Cooperative said outages are expected Monday into Tuesday. [5] Honolulu Mayor Rick Blangiardi called the latest track "more encouraging" for Oahu and said the city was "not going to declare this over." [5] Kawakami asked residents who remember Iniki to check on neighbors. Memory is not a watch.
Rainfall and swell remain the hazards already named. Kauai and the Big Island: 3 to 6 inches, isolated totals above 10. Maui: 2 to 4, isolated 8. Remaining islands: 1 to 2, isolated 4. Flash flooding and mudslides are possible in steep terrain. Heavy rain is forecast to begin Sunday afternoon. [1] [4] Swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents for several days, and those swells are likely to increase early next week. [1] [4] Hawaii News Now, updating after 11 p.m. HST, matched Advisory 37's 155 mph and the Saturday-watch language. [6] Prefer NHC numbers over any lead graf still stuck on 150.
Weather X will file Iniki 2.0 from Category 5 and a Kauai rainfall line. NHC's Saturday record is 160, then 155, still no watches, on the day it said watches would likely post. Those are two different sentences. Only one of them is on Advisory 37.
-- DARA OSEI, London