The European Central Bank raised its three key rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, taking the deposit facility to 2.50 percent on energy-driven inflation. [1] The Governing Council's own statement is the vote; the New York Times filed the same decision within the hour. [1][2] This paper printed that hike then. Monday has no second act from Frankfurt.

The hike was the year's second, priced against oil above 100 and a Salalah postponement that now sits on Monday's lead. None of that reprices Thursday's quarter point retroactively. A postponed ministerial moves crude; it does not move the deposit facility.

Euro accounts read every Gulf headline as a coming hike. The Council meets on its calendar, not on Salalah's. Thursday's 25 basis points stay Thursday's until Frankfurt says otherwise. The next scheduled decision is weeks out, and the Council's own language stresses meeting-by-meeting data dependence. Energy inflation got the hike; energy headlines do not get a second one for free.

Unfree hikes cost data; Monday pays none. Paying none is the update. Calendars decide.

Energy inflation got Thursday's hike. Energy headlines do not get a second one for free. Monday pays no new data.

Euro feeds that convert every tanker headline into a second hike are running ahead of the Council. Thursday already spent the year's second move. Crude can jump on Salalah without the deposit facility jumping with it. Monday reprints 2.50 percent, not a new vote.
Thursday already spent the year's second move. Monday reprints Thursday's 25bp, not a new vote. Monday pays no new data.

Thursday already spent the year's second move. Monday pays no new data. Monday reprints Thursday's hike, not a new vote.

-- HENDRIK VAN DER BERG, Brussels