NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued its April outlook on Monday, forecasting above-average temperatures for roughly 80 percent of the contiguous United States [1]. The agency's maps paint the country in shades of orange and red from the Pacific Northwest to New England, with only a narrow strip of the northern Plains given equal odds of normal temperatures. Precipitation is expected to tilt above average across the Gulf Coast and below average in the Ohio Valley [1].

The heat outlook arrives alongside a rising probability that El Nino conditions will develop by mid-2026. NOAA's latest ENSO diagnostic puts the likelihood of El Nino emerging during the May-July window at 60 percent, up from 50 percent in February's assessment [2]. Sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific have been trending warmer since January, and coupled ocean-atmosphere models now broadly agree on a transition from neutral conditions.

Weather forecasters note that El Nino onset years carry particular risks for the spring severe weather season. Atmospheric patterns during the transition tend to enhance wind shear across the central United States, historically correlating with more active tornado activity in March through early April and again in June [1]. The Storm Prediction Center has already issued several enhanced-risk outlooks for portions of the southern Plains this month.

For most Americans, the practical takeaway is straightforward: April will likely feel more like May. Energy analysts expect cooling demand to start earlier than usual across the Sun Belt, with natural gas inventories already running below the five-year average heading into injection season [2].

-- KENJI NAKAMURA, Tokyo