Bitcoin has been treading water. The asset traded between $69,378 and $72,500 for much of the past week, unable to build on a brief push above $73,000 that evaporated within hours. The market capitalization sits at approximately $1.33 trillion. Polymarket, the prediction platform that has become crypto's preferred sentiment gauge, gives less than 1 percent odds of a new all-time high before March 31. [1]

The paper noted last edition that Bitcoin dropped 8.6 percent in five days as geopolitical risk crushed the digital gold thesis. The thesis remains crushed. Veteran analyst Bob Loukas called the weekly chart "horrendous" and warned Bitcoin is "hanging on by a thread and readying for another big leg lower," with a $49,000 target. [2]

Institutional money tells a contradictory story. Strategy made its largest purchase of 2026 on March 16 — 22,337 BTC for $1.57 billion at an average price of $70,194 — but the company's entire 2026 buying program is now roughly $1 billion underwater. The company holds 762,099 BTC total. [3] Spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $53.9 million on March 13, modest but positive. Somebody keeps buying. The price keeps not moving.

Key support sits at $69,378. A break below it opens the path toward $65,000. A new all-time high would require a 55 percent rally from current levels. The market is betting against it.

-- HENDRIK VAN DER BERG, Brussels