TL;DR
Brent crude remains above $112 per barrel with analysts arguing the war premium is now a permanent feature of oil market structure.
MSM Perspective
Financial press focuses on Brent's impact on global inflation and the growing divergence between spot prices and pre-war forecasts.
X Perspective
Energy traders argue the war premium is structural, not temporary — Hormuz risk will persist for years regardless of ceasefire timing.
Brent crude closed above $112 per barrel on Monday, its fourth consecutive week above $110, as the international benchmark increasingly reflects what analysts are calling a permanent war premium embedded in global oil prices [1].
The premium — estimated by Goldman Sachs at $25 to $32 per barrel before the Kharg Island threats — has fundamentally altered the calculus for central banks, airlines, petrochemical companies, and any business exposed to energy costs. Before the conflict, Brent was trading near $70. It has not been below $95 since March 9.
Goldman Sachs head of oil research Daan Struyven has quantified the risk premium, but multiple analysts now argue his estimates look conservative given Monday's escalation. Trump's suggestion that the U.S. could "take the oil in Iran" introduces seizure risk to Kharg Island, which handles roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports.
Dan Niles noted Friday that "Brent closed at a new high of $113 vs the prior closing high of $112 last Friday. The longer oil stays at higher levels, the more risk there is" to the global economy.
The structural argument is straightforward: even after a ceasefire, Hormuz transit insurance premiums will remain elevated, Iranian production capacity will be degraded, and geopolitical risk pricing will persist. The RBI's October policy framework assumed Brent at $70. Every inflation forecast built on sub-$80 oil is now obsolete.
Brent above $110 is no longer a spike. It is the new baseline.
-- HENDRIK VAN DER BERG, New York